Thousands of shares of A shares limit-long-term gift package MLF interest rate LPR subsequent decline can be expected
Thousands of shares of A shares fell: long-term gift package MLF interest rate LPR subsequently dropped can be expected
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On February 3, the first trading day of the Year of the Rat, affected by the pneumonia epidemic, A shares almost opened with limit stops without any doubt, and the number of limit stops once exceeded 3,000.
The first emergency shot, “rate cut” is here!
On February 3, the People’s Bank of China issued an announcement saying that in order to hedge the impact of factors such as the termination of reverse repurchase in the open market and the termination of the concentration of funds in the financial market, the banking system had a reasonable and sufficient liquidity during the special period of epidemic prevention and control, and was initiated by interest rate tenderUp to 1.
2 trillion reverse repo operations.
Among them, the 7-day reverse repurchase bid amount was 900 billion yuan, and the bid interest rate was 2.
4%; The 14-day reverse repurchase bid amount is 300 billion yuan, and the bid interest rate is 2.
55%, 2 last time.
65%, all down 10 basis points.
Know that today’s reverse repo expires at 1.
05 trillion, the single-day net investment is 150 billion.
Gradually stated that they will continue to pay close attention to market liquidity during special periods of epidemic prevention and control to ensure adequate liquidity supply.
The reverse repurchase rate fell by 10BP, which exceeded market expectations. From a market perspective, the gradual operation can be said to further demonstrate the confidence and determination of the macro-scale and maintain the stock market.
“Founder Securities (rights) chief economist said in color.
Wen Bin, chief analyst of Minsheng Bank, also told the International Financial News reporter that during the special period of epidemic prevention and control, this change will help maintain a large supply of liquidity in the post-holiday market and help financial institutions do a good job of liquidity management.
Judging from the operation of the money market and bond market today, interest rates are generally stable and the market is expected to be stable.
In terms of the 2 trillion reverse repurchase structure, the operating mode of 900 billion 7-day reverse repurchase + 300 billion 14-day reverse repurchase is mainly used. It can be said that the overall scale of liquidity is very rich.
Wen Bin said that if the 900 billion US dollars reverse repurchase expires after February 10th, it may also be replaced by MLF to put liquidity for a predetermined period, and the LPR price on February 20th will have an impact.
“This week, we can gradually make corresponding policy choices by continuing to observe the prevention and control of the epidemic situation.”
Regarding the 14-day reverse repurchase operation adopted this time, Guo Yuwei, a macro analyst at Industrial Research, believes that “the transition from 2016 to 2018 has chosen to compensate for the Spring Festival liquidity through 28-day or 30-day tools, which means the impact of cash leakageThe duration is about 1 month.
Prior to the holiday, 14-day liquidity was mainly invested, and the return speed was faster than the speed of cash return to the banking system.
Therefore, in order to fully cover the expected impact of the resumption of work, a certain number of 14-day reverse repurchases are required.
”February ‘s expected reduction in LPR quotes is seen by a number of specific persons. Next, MLF (Interim Lending Facility) interest rates will also fall, and the LPR (Loan Market Quote Rate) announced on February 20 is expected to fall.
”From the perspective of the significant decline in A-shares after the opening today, the long-term reverse repurchase ‘reduction in interest rates’ is a response based on changes in the stock market.
At present, it appears that the interest rate of the new MLF will be reduced correspondingly in mid-February, but the overall situation still needs to be selected according to the changes in the stock market.
“Said the color.
The color indicates that in order to respond to the epidemic prevention and control, the short-term internal monetary policy operation has two main objectives: First, to respond to short-term liquidity shocks, this release.
The US $ 2 trillion reverse repurchase arithmetic is a one-time sequel to the expiring open market operation, which stabilizes market expectations, but there may not be more reverse repurchase operations in the next week; by observing the trend of the capital market,Especially for the possible overshooting of the stock market in the future, some precise adjustment policies have been introduced.
But these precise measures are mainly to expand the operation of the capital market, not the traditional monetary policy norms.
Wen Bin said that the 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase rate cuts may mean that the MLF policy rate cut is not far off.
“The expiry date of the next MLF is April 17 this year. From the perspective of the epidemic situation, it is expected that the MLF will be continued early in the beginning of next month and will be reduced by 10 bps at the same time to guide the substantial decline in the LPR rate as soon as possible and effectively reduce the entity.Economic financing costs. ”
In addition, Ma Jun, a member of the Foreign Exchange Monetary Policy Committee and an expert at the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University, also said that from today ‘s progressively higher-than-expected liquidity shift, the bidding interest rate in the open market operation has been lowered by 10 basis points, which actually reached the market ‘s expectation of “rate reduction”effect.
This projection of liquidity beyond expectations can generate a downward thrust on the overall market interest rate.
Following the decrease in the bidding interest rate in the open market operation that reflects the short-term interest rate of the 青岛夜网 market today, the bidding interest rate for the medium-term lending convenience operation that has been carried out in the middle of the month gradually has also decreased, and the LPR announced on February 20 is expected to decline.
Financial support is expected to escalate. As a whole, in the special period of the current epidemic prevention and control, market liquidity issues have been replaced by regulators and other regulators. It is predicted in advance that subsequent financial support will gradually be upgraded again. On January 28, the People ‘s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated in the “Notice on Extending the Inter-bank Market Break Time Arrangement” that the People ‘s Bank of China will use open market operations in consideration of the scale of funds remaining after the market opens on February 3.Monetary policy tools such as monetary policy issued a large amount of liquidity in a timely manner to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system.
With the advancement of epidemic prevention and control work, the five departments of the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the “Notice on Further Strengthening Financial Support for the Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infectious Diseases”Among them, the first one is “maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity”, and the first one is particularly prominent “maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity”.
Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People ‘s Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an interview with the media, “Considering the dual effects of the special period of the epidemic and the deferred opening of the market, open market operations, standing borrowing facilities, reloans, rediscounts and other variousMonetary policy instruments provide liquidity to markets.
We will maintain close communication with financial institutions and financial markets, fully understand market liquidity conditions and liquidity needs, research and judge liquidity indicators, timely release policy information, and strengthen expected guidance.
For this reason, Ding Anhua, chief economist of China Merchants Bank, believes that under the special circumstances of the new coronavirus epidemic prevention and control, the timely redistribution of liquidity shows the “flexible and appropriate” orientation of monetary policy and highlights the constant stabilization of the marketThe determination will help stabilize and boost market confidence.
Ding Anhua predicts that the epidemic will reach its peak (Jin Qilin analyst) period, and the financial system’s support for the real economy will continue to increase.
“In addition to the targeted interest rate cuts targeted at companies affected by the infringement situation, the MLF rate cuts are expected to fall in the near future, with a range of 5-10bp, which will drive a one-year LPR synchronous downlink.
Considering that the highest rigidity of deposit costs is still a major factor in increasing the decline in loan interest rates, it cannot be ruled out that expansion will guide the decline in deposit interest rates by adjusting the benchmark benchmark.
At the same time, considering that the overall RRR cut has already been implemented in early January, there has recently been a possibility of targeted RRR cuts for small and medium banks.
On this basis, this year is still expected to continue to reduce the level twice (total 100BP), respectively in the middle of the year and the end of the third quarter.
Combining the flexible use of monetary policy tools such as SLF, MLF, refinancing, and re-discounting, liquidity promotes adequate maintenance.
“Reporter Ma Jiaxin