Yuyue Medical (002223)： Pioneer of Anti-epidemic
Yuyue Medical (002223): Pioneer of Anti-epidemic
Strong support for epidemic prevention and epidemic prevention, seize the potential, meet the challenge Yuyue Medical is a key medical material enterprise for epidemic prevention and epidemic prevention. In mid-February, the company gradually provided more than 1,000 kinds of sensory control and disinfection products to areas such as Wuhan for epidemic prevention and control.There are more than 3 million units of body temperature monitoring and respiratory therapy products, which have made outstanding contributions to epidemic prevention.We believe that the outbreak has boosted the company’s short-term profitability and accelerated the promotion and expansion of blank markets from a long-term perspective. We raise the company’s profit forecast for 2020 and 2021, and expect EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.84/1.10/1.12 yuan, raise the target price to 37.28-39.48 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Short-term: The growth and volume of the epidemic-related products, the net interest rate or the company’s main products such as disinfectant, oxygen generator, ventilator, forehead gun, etc. have played an important role in the epidemic, and have continued to be underfunded.To ensure supply, the company organizes overtime production during the Spring Festival, which is usually the off-season.We estimate the corresponding revenue of the above-mentioned epidemic-related products in 2019 to be approximately 1.8-1.9 billion, accounting for 38-40%.The company’s hot-selling epidemic-related products were basically purchased by enterprises and institutions. Although the group purchase price is lower than the usual terminal price, because there is no intermediate channel profit, the ex-factory price has increased compared to usual.In addition, the group purchase method can save marketing costs and management expenses such as travel. Therefore, we believe that the company’s epidemic-related products will not only increase revenue but also increase net profit margin. Long-term: The rapid response to the epidemic is expected to accelerate the promotion of hospitals and civilian markets. We believe that the impact of the epidemic on the company is not only one-time, but also of long-term significance: 1) civilian market: Zhongyou sensory control products have been fully recognized by tertiary hospitalsOutstanding performance in the field of epidemic prevention and disinfection may be expected to achieve the scale of its promotion of civilian products; 2) Hospital market: Bilevel non-invasive ventilator and other products are expanding the hospital market before the epidemic. In this epidemic, it successfully assisted in treating a large number of patients. PreliminaryPreliminary academic guidance.If the combined marketing and management capabilities of the company can seize the changes hidden in the crisis, then we believe that this will significantly accelerate the development of blank markets. The medical clinical business and the medical respiratory oxygen supply business may perform well in 2020. We believe that the company’s three core businesses will maintain rapid growth in 2020: 1) Medical clinical: Driven by the continued high-volume of Zhongyou disinfection and control products, we expect the companyMedical clinical revenue will grow at a rate of 30% in 2020; 2) Respiratory and oxygen supply: vital products such as ventilator, nebulizer and oxygen generator to treat respiratory diseases, we expect the company’s medical respiratory and oxygen revenue to grow in 202020%; 3) Home medical: The sales volume of frontal temperature guns is heavy, and the lag in demand for blood glucose meters and sphygmomanometers results in limited impact, so we expect the company’s home medical income to be stable in 2020, remaining at 20-25%. 2020 performance expectations are expected to accelerate, maintaining the “Buy” rating. Considering that the company ‘s multiple products have been affected by the epidemic, and reduced certain marketing expenses, we have raised the company ‘s 2020 and 2021 epidemic-related product revenue forecasts, while reducing the sales expense ratio and managementExpense ratio, the company’s expected net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2021 is 8.46/10.99/12.08 thousand yuan (previous value was 8.46/9.86/11.46 ppm), the annual increase is 16都市夜网% / 30% / 10%, the current expected corresponding PE is estimated to be 35x / 27x / 25x.The average PE of the comparable company in 2020 is 34x. Considering the short-term and long-term positive impact of the epidemic on the company, we give the company an estimated PE in 2020 of 34x-36x, corresponding to a target price of 37.28-39.48 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.